China will continue as a driver of fab equipment spending growth in 2018 and 2019 unless there is a major change of plans although SEMI predicts Samsung will lead in fab equipment spending both in 2018 and 2019,
Meanwhile China is set to increase year-over-year fab equipment spending by 57 percent in 2018 and 60 percent in 2019 to support fab projects from both multinationals and domestic companies. The China spending surge is forecast to accelerate it past Korea as the top spending region in 2019.
Volume fabs starting construction, including discretes. Source: SEMI
After record investments in 2017, Korean fab equipment spending will decline 9 percent, to $18 billion, in 2018 and by an additional 14 percent, to $16 billion, in 2019. The record 26 volume fabs that started construction in China in 2017 will begin equipping this year and next.
Non-Chinese companies account for the largest share of fab equipment investment in China. However, Chinese-owned companies are expected to ramp up fabs in 2019, increasing their share of spending in China from 33 percent in 2017 to 45 percent in 2019.
3D NAND will lead product sector spending, growing 3 percent each in 2018 and 2019, to US$16 billion and US$17 billion, respectively. DRAM will see robust growth of 26 percent in 2018, to US$14 billion, but is expected to decline 14 percent to US$12 billion in 2019. Foundries will increase equipment spending by 2 percent to US$17 billion in 2018 and by 26 percent to US$22 billion in 2019, primarily to support 7nm investments and ramp of new capacity.
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