2018 to mark ‘new era’ for quantum computing, says report
The report focuses on quantum computing software and cloud services, as well as the computers themselves. In addition to traditional markets for quantum computing in aerospace, defense, and R&D, the report analyzes application areas including Web search, materials/drug design, financial services, general business planning, healthcare, transportation, and the energy industry.
The report identifies the main future inflection points for quantum computing markets and determines adoption time frames for key end user communities. This year, says the company, will see a new era for quantum computing.
“IBM, Google, and Microsoft, have made quantum computing a central part of their enterprise computing strategy,” says the report’s author, Lawrence Gasman. “In the next year or so, problems that cannot be solved using classical supercomputers will find solutions using quantum computers.”
The report includes ten-year revenue forecasts for quantum computing applications with breakouts by hardware, software, services, geography, and end user. Key findings include:
- Quantum computing users, other than R&D and cloud providers, will account for just 6% of quantum computer revenues in 2018. By 2024 their share will be around 30%. The biggest commercial expenditures on quantum computing will come from defense/aerospace, pharmaceuticals/specialty chemical, and banking/finance.
- Currently leading the quantum computing hardware market is D-Wave with its quantum annealer, while Google, IBM, and Microsoft are each investing heavily in the space. Future market shares will depend not only on the number of qubits for a particular quantum computer, but on their stability. With many different technologies vying for the quantum computing space, there may be breakthroughs that will ultimately give new firms a lion’s share of the market. By 2023, quantum computing hardware revenues are expected to be about $803 million.
- The quantum computing software market is expected to reach $408 million by 2023, with 60% of the revenues from applications packages for cloud service providers. Early revenues for quantum software start-ups will also come from compilers, simulators, and a few applications packages.
The report also features profiles of leading quantum software and cloud services firms. These include D-Wave Systems (Canada), Google (U.S.), IBM (U.S.), IonQ (U.S.), Microsoft (U.S.), Rigetti (U.S.), 1Qbit (Canada), Alibaba (China), Ariste-QB.net (Canada), Atos (France), Cambridge Quantum Computing (U.K.), Q-Ctrl (Australia), Qbit Logic International (U.S.), QC Ware (U.S.), Qu and Co (The Netherlands), Quantum Benchmark (Canada), QxBranch (U.S.), SAP (Germany), Turing (U.S.), and Zapata (U.S.).
Some of the applications considered in the report include quantum chemistry, advanced search engines, simulation, routing/scheduling, logistics and analytics, cybersecurity, and machine learning/AI. Also discussed are the impact of such issues as user friendliness for programming, and the response to quantum computers from the classical computer community.
For more, see “Quantum Computing: Applications, Software and End-User Markets: 2018-2027.”
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