Analyst lifts 2024 chip market growth forecast
Market researcher Semiconductor Intelligence has raised its prediction for chip market growth in 2024 over 2023 to 18 percent, from 16 percent given in November 2023.
The prediction puts Semiconductor Intelligence towards the top end of a range of forecasts from other analysts that cover a spread from 5 to 20 percent. In January Malcolm Penn of Future Horizons gave a 2024 chip market growth forecast of 16 percent plus or minus 4 percent.
The company did observe that the 4Q23/3Q23 growth according to WSTS was stronger than expected coming in at 8.4 percent. Memory market growth on recovering average selling prices drove the robust 4Q23, the firm said.
In US dollars, Samsung’s memory business was up 49 percent compared with the previous quarter, SK Hynix was up 24.1 percent, and Micron Technology was up 17.9 percent. The weighted-average revenue growth in US dollars of these three businesses was 33 percent. The weighted-average revenue growth of the twelve largest non-memory companies was 4 percent in 4Q23 over 3Q23.
Top 15 semiconductor companies ranked by 4Q23 revenue Sequential growth calculated in local currency. Source: Semiconductor Intelligence.
The outlook for non-memory companies in 1Q24 is mostly negative with most of them forecasting declines. These range from 2.8 decline from Infineon to 17.6 percent from Intel. The expected decreases were blamed on seasonality, excess inventories, and weakness in the industrial sector.
Nonetheless Semiconductor Intelligence expects smartphone and PC sales to rebound in 2024 and drives increased chip sales. Smartphone unit shipments were down 3.2 percent in 2023 but a 3.8 percent increase is forecast for 2024. PC unit shipments dropped a 14 percent in 2023 but are expected to grow 3.4 percent in 2024.
The automotive and industrial markets have supported STMicroelectronics, Texas Instruments, Infineon Technologies, NXP Semiconductors, Analog Devices and Renesas Electronics over the last couple of years. However, that run is set to end in 2024, Semiconductor Intelligence said.
Related links and articles:
www.semiconductorintelligence.com
News articles:
Chip market rebound points to 16 percent growth in 2024
Future Horizons sounds warnings over chip market rebound
Gartner trims 2024 global chip market growth forecast
Global chip market to surge 20 percent in 2024, says IDC
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