Analyst tips solar microinverter/power optimiser market to pass $1bn in 2018
Worldwide market revenue for PV solar microinverters and power optimisers, collectively called module-level power electronics (MLPE), will rise at a compound annual growth rate of 27% to total $1.1 billion in 2018, up from $329 million in 2013.
Microinverters carry out DC-AC conversion from a single solar module; as a power conversion architecture, microinverters can be more costly, but can in some cases harvest up to 25% more electricity than conventional string or central inverter devices, which convert power from multiple solar panels.
Power optimisers take a similar approach by performing the maximum power point tracking (MPPT) at a module level. However, a centralised inverter is still used for the DC-AC stage.
Lower microinverter and power optimiser prices will mean that MLPE will become more competitively priced compared to traditional inverters. This will make MLPE devices more appealing to new customers. As a result, total shipments will increase to 6.6 Gigawatts in 2018 as MLPE technology gains acceptance in new regions.
“Demand for MLPE has been driven by key markets such as the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia,” said Cormac Gilligan, senior analyst for solar inverters at IHS. “The market has grown to more than $300 million in size, despite continued price pressure due to new entrants into the business and decreasing PV system prices. Future demand for microinverters and power optimizers is expected to be spurred by continued acceptance in mature European PV markets, such as Germany and France. However, some of the major Asian markets, like Japan and China, will generate huge opportunity in the next few years as MLPE technology begins to penetrate these markets in larger volumes.”
The United States is the largest region for microinverter shipments, with residential systems representing the largest market for microinverters in the region. U.S.-based microinverter supplier Enphase has built market leadership serving this segment, although the penetration rate of microinverters in this segment is starting to saturate.
However, during the next few years an increasing number of microinverters are forecast to be installed in commercial installations in the United States. This will allow the U.S. to remain the largest market for microinverters to the end of 2018. The United States is one of the fastest-growing markets for power optimisers with shipments forecast to increase by 160% in 2014, as all of the leading suppliers—such as SolarEdge, Tigo and Ampt—are forecast to increase shipments.
Among other regions, IHS finds that power optimisers have been shipped in Japan in relatively low numbers to date. However, IHS expects that the penetration rate will increase dramatically to 7% of total installations in 2018, as increased energy yields that result from using MLPE will allow a higher return on investment (ROI). Moreover, microinverter suppliers are expected to gain Japan Electrical Safety & Environment Technology Laboratories (JET) certification in Japan in the near future, which will allow them to ship microinverters into this huge residential market.
Although Enphase and SolarEdge continue to be the leaders in the microinverter and power optimiser market, this has not stopped new suppliers from entering the space. For example, leading inverter suppliers, such as Kaco and Delta, have released new microinverter models recently as they continue to expand and diversify their inverter portfolio.
In the power optimizer market, new suppliers such as Maxim Integrated have recently developed partnerships with module suppliers, adding to the number of active suppliers in the trade. This will intensify the competition and may lead to lower power optimiser prices in the future.
Some prominent suppliers, such as SolarBridge and Tigo, have decided that integrating their products directly onto the module to create an “AC module” or “Smart module” is the way forward, other suppliers, including Enphase and SolarEdge, have had success with solar lease companies such as Sunrun and SolarCity in the United States, as an alternative sales channel.
“PV Microinverters and Power Optimizers 2014,”, IHS Technology; www.ihs.com
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