China shifts down in e-mobility, study says
In the two largest sales markets, China and the USA, the development of e-mobility (BEV, PHEV) is declining in 2019 as a whole, the institute writes in its annual report. In China, new registrations of New Energy Vehicles (NEV, incl. commercial vehicles) are falling by 4% to 1.2 million vehicles for the first time. In the USA, new registrations of electric cars are forecast to fall by around 10% to 324,000. In contrast, Germany is surprisingly realizing the world’s largest absolute growth in e-mobility, with an increase of 41,000 electric cars (+50%) to now 109,000 new registrations. These are the key findings of the “Electromobility Report 2020” by the Center of Automotive Management (CAM) in Bergisch Gladbach (Germany).
Accordingly, the development of sales of electric vehicles in the most important global automotive markets in 2019 is uneven. Above all, the regulatory conditions and different funding scenarios determine the market development of e-mobility in the regions. According to the CAM researchers, 2019 as a whole will be a global transition year for e-mobility with stagnating sales figures worldwide. From 2020, however, strong growth in e-mobility is expected, especially in Europe, due to further regulation and new vehicle models.
As the leading market for electric mobility, China is recording a significant drop in sales of electric cars in 2019 and ceased to be the the locomotive of global e-mobility in 2019. Since the middle of the year, the electric vehicle market in China has collapsed. Over the year as a whole, the number of pure electric cars (BEV = Battery Electric Vehicles) in China is dropping to around 972,000, which corresponds to a share of 8 %. Around 19% of the electric vehicles here are plug-in hybrids (PHEV). At the end of 2019, around 1.2 million electric vehicles were sold on the Chinese market. Nevertheless, the market share of e-vehicles in total registrations has risen from 4.5% to 4.7% due to the high momentum in the first half of the year. As was recently announced, the Chinese government has decided to delay the end of subsidies for e-vehicles, which was originally planned for mid-2020.
The USA, the second largest market for electric vehicles, is also showing a slump in sales in 2019. Compared to the previous year, market researchers estimate a decline of around 5% to 324,000 units. Despite declining sales figures, the USA remains by far the second most important market for electric mobility after China. However, the overall market share of electric cars in the USA fell from 2.1% to 1.9%. BEV accounted for around 75 % of the e-vehicles sold.
Germany, so far clearly the laggard in electric mobility, became the third-largest e-vehicle market in 2019 as a whole and is increasingly playing a driving role. By the turn of the year, around 109,000 new electric vehicles had been registered. Although this is still very weak in absolute terms, it represents growth of 50%. Their market share rose from 2.0% to 3.0% for the first time. Of these, 58% are pure electric cars (BEV) and 42% are PHEVs. Due to the expanded offering of plug-in hybrids such as the BMW 330e, the Audi A6 TFSI e or the Mercedes-Benz C 300 de, sales of PHEVs tripled in the last quarter of 2019 compared to the same period last year.
Norway is now only the second strongest e-automotive country in Europe after Germany. For the full year 2019, new registrations of e-cars are expected to rise to 80,000 units (+10%). At the same time, the country confirms its exceptional position in terms of market share, which rose from 49.1% in the previous year to 55.9%. Around 76 % of e-vehicles here are BEVs.
In the other European countries, the UK has around 73,000 e-vehicles, while in the Netherlands, with strong growth of around 150%, around 67,000 new passenger cars have now been registered. In terms of absolute sales, the small Netherlands is thus overtaking France. In terms of e-car market share, the Netherlands occupies second place with 15%. The strong market growth is triggered by the planned reduction in tax benefits for e-vehicles in the year ahead, with Tesla’s Model 3 in particular benefiting from this in the last quarter. In France, e-vehicle sales rose to around 61,000 vehicles (+35%). There the market share is rising to 2.8%. In Europe, Sweden with 40,300 e-vehicles and Spain with 24,300 new EV registrations also rank sixth and seventh respectively, the CAM study concludes.
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