Chip market rebound points to 16% growth in 2024

Market news | November 20, 2023

By Peter Clarke

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The global chip market is now rebounding and this will deliver 16 percent annual growth in 2024, according to Semiconductor Intelligence.

This puts the market researcher in the middle of a range of growth figures from forecasters that vary between 9 and 20 percent (see Global chip market to surge 20 percent in 2024, says IDC).

But the growth forecast is highly polarized. The prospects are relatively weak for chip companies focused primarily on automotive, industrial and IoT – Texas Instruments, Infineon, ST, NXP, Analog Devices, Renesas. The strongest revenue growth in 2024 is expected to come from the memory companies – Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron – and the smartphone and computing-focused companies – Nvidia, Intel, AMD, MediaTek, Qualcomm.

Revised upwards

Semiconductor Intelligence said that World Semiconductor Trade Statistics has recently revised upwards its data for 2Q23 and the sequential growth for that quarter is now given as 6.0 percent compared with 4.2 percent given previously. The 3Q23 quarter-on-quarter growth is 6.3 percent indicating a solid turnaround is underway (see Semiconductor market has turned the corner, says analyst).

Semiconductor market turnaround through 4Q23. Source: Semiconductor Intelligence and WSTS.

For the 4Q23 Semiconductor Intelligence is forecasting a 3 percent sequential growth and 6 percent annual growth. After three weak quarters this will make 2023 a year of 9.5 percent contraction. But the strong fourth quarter will set the stage for double-digit year-to-year growth for each quarter of 2024 the market research firm said.

The top 15 chip companies all reported sequential revenue growth in 3Q23 although it varied from less than 1 percent at Texas Instruments and Analog Devices to double-digit percentage growth at Nvidia, Samsung, SK Hynix, and MediaTek.

Top 15 chip companies ranked by 3Q23 revenue with percentage change versus prior quarter in local currency. Source: Semiconductor Intelligence.

The outlook for 4Q23 and into 2024 is mixed. Generally those companies dependendent on automotive, industrial and communications sectors are facing revenue declines while companies closer to consumer electronics and memory components are seeing sales rebound and average-selling prices increase.

Smartphone unit shipments are expected to increase by 4 percent in 2024 after a 5 percent decline in 2023. PC unit shipments are also expected to grow 4 percent following a drop of 14 percent in 2023.