Desktop quantum computers booming says report but scaling challenges remain

Market news | August 8, 2023

By Nick Flaherty

quantum Materials & processes

Although desktop quantum computers are already shipping, there are significant challenges to scaling the technology, says a new report from IDTechEX.

In recent years, research has evolved toward room-temperature and even desktop quantum computer technology, says IDTechEX in its latest report, with diamond and photonics as key technologies.

Diamonds with a specific defect can form 2-state quantum systems and, therefore, qubits. For example, nitrogen-vacancy (NV) centres have spin states which can be used to represent 1s and 0s.

The frequency of stimulated emission of NV centres is dependent on this spin state, and as such off-the-shelf fluorescence microscopes can be used to read out algorithm results. Because these qubits are naturally insulated from noise sources in the environment by lattices of carbon atoms in diamonds, they are good candidates for room-temperature quantum computing.

Multiple companies are already selling desktop quantum computer systems using diamond defect technology and supercomputing centres and aerospace companies have invested in diamond-defect technology from Quantum Brilliance and XeedQ. Nvidia is using the technology in Europe as part of a hybrid system and there are also several research projects around the world looking to scale the technology and reduce the size further.

The addressable market for quantum computers is forecast to increase rapidly as technology advances, with over 3000 systems likely to be installed by 2043 and room temperature systems, whether diamond-based or using photonics, says the report.

However, the number of qubits demonstrated using diamond defect remains in the single digits. To provide the most commercial value and meet the needs of error correction techniques, thousands, if not millions of qubits are required. Some developers do plan to demonstrate hundreds of diamond-defect qubits in the next few years, but there is plenty of research left to do, particularly in terms of optimizing the engineered diamond manufacturing processes it says.

While creating room-temperature desktop quantum computer systems is theoretically possible, today, most quantum computing hardware developers are focused on providing systems for industrial applications, including the aerospace, finance, and chemical sectors. This includes many of the leaders in photonic and diamond-defect quantum computing. There is general agreement that the highest value problems quantum computers will solve first will be achieved through cloud access models.

A future with room-temperature solutions for the mass market shouldn’t be ruled out, as photonic technology was even featured at CES this year. There are many more potential users outside of pharma and aerospace who could benefit from an affordable and mobile solution – predominantly for edge-AI, image processing, and real-time logistics optimization. Autonomous vehicle manufacturers and supermarket chains are already exploring this quantum application space.

There is even demand for higher-performance computing in the harsh environment of space, for example, to process images from satellite-mounted astronomical instruments.

Though desktop quantum computer systems could come to the mass market, classical hardware solutions will remain dominant here for at least the next twenty years says the report.

In the meantime, room-temperature quantum computers are instead set to play a role in educating society about quantum computing. Ultimately this will serve to facilitate research and enable the adoption of the most powerful, high qubit number devices on the cloud. It remains uncertain which the market leading technologies will be, with photonic and diamond competing with superconducting, trapped ion, neutral atom, photonic, and even silicon.

Long term commercial success is most likely for more inherently scalable solutions, where desktop technologies could have a significant competitive edge says the report.

www.IDTechEx.com/QuantumComputing.