Electric vehicle market expands beyond automotive
IDTechEx is predicting the electric vehicle market outside of automotive will be worth US$1 trillion by 2045, driving significant growth for semiconductors and battery systems.
Construction equipment will see compound growth of 24.1% while marine and shipping will see growth of 16.1% says Mika Takahashi, Technology Analyst at IDTechEx
The report, “Electric Vehicles: Land, Sea, and Air 2025-2045”, covers 11 key vehicle segments, breaking down historic and forecast growth across 148 forecast lines, including battery demand, drivetrain share, and market value.
Commercial vehicles
Although they are deployed in smaller volumes than cars, as significant contributors to global emissions there is a strong drive to electrify commercial vehicles. IDTechEx covers three key commercial segments with buses, vans, and trucks. These segments are collectively at an earlier stage of electrification than cars but are making significant progress with 15.1% CAGR.
Electric buses presented an early market in China. Takahashi predicts that due to the saturation of China’s electric bus market, global sales will not surpass their 2016 peak until 2040, with future growth fuelled by replacements in China and greater adoption in Europe. Much of the European market has been underpinned by Chinese OEMs, but local supply is now starting to ramp up. Interurban and long-haul coaches are the least electrified due to technical constraints, and this sector presents the greatest opportunity for fuel-cell electric buses (FCEBs).
Electrification of light commercial vehicle (LCV) fleets is proving to be an effective way to demonstrate green credentials to customers, however total cost of ownership (TCO) remains the biggest obstacle. Significant vehicle depreciation is the biggest single contributor to a higher TCO. However, battery electric vans are already sufficient to cover the daily mileage of most requirements.
Long-haul trucking is one of the most challenging on-road sectors to electrify due to the high daily mileage and lack of charging infrastructure. Despite these barriers, Takahashi predicts that over 1.7 million electric (both fuel cell and battery) vehicles will be sold, driven by a mix of regional policy, TCO considerations, and increasing model availability from major OEMs.
Micromobility
Two-wheeler, three-wheeler, microcar, and electric scooter sales collectively amounted to over 25 million units in 2024. This makes micromobility the largest vehicle sector in terms of unit sales, but with a much smaller battery demand and vehicle value than other sectors. Electric micromobility is already well established, particularly in China, India, and Southeast Asia. The popularity of the segment can be attributed to low price, ease of use, and small form factor which is suitable for dense urban centres. With such strong sales already, growth potential is more modest at 4.6% when compared to other sectors (although still significant).
Construction and mining
These off-road sectors have highly varied workloads, power requirements, and operational conditions. With a relatively lax regulatory push to electrify, it is TCO that will be the primary driver to shift operators away from traditional diesel machines. These sectors are relatively unelectrified, but smaller machines (such as mini excavators and other light vehicles) are relatively easy to electrify and thi sis driving growth of 24.1%. Much larger vehicles like mining haul trucks are expected to require batteries on the order of MWh in scale. Despite this, the enormous TCO savings are expected to drive growth in these sectors, but minimizing downtime due to charging remains a key concern.
Electric and hybrid marine
Electric & hybrid propulsion systems in marine have mostly emerged in recreational boating, ferries, and short-sea or inland vessels, where they have enjoyed steady uptake due to small vessel sizes or well-defined operational profiles that allow for opportunity charging. In larger deep-sea vessels, uptake is less rapid but gaining momentum as unprecedented global emissions regulations from the IMO and EU, which initially targeted NOx, SOx & PM, are now focussing on carbon & GHG emissions. IDTechEx expects this to lead to significant growth in the battery demand for marine vessels, although a slightly more modest CAGR represents a more gradual electrification compared with other sectors with 16.1% CAGR.
Electric trains
Although most electrification of train networks comes from overhead catenary electrification, in some instances this is not possible or economically viable. In such circumstances, battery or fuel cell electric trains are being deployed to replace diesel multiple units, shunters, and locomotives. IDTechEx expects substantial growth in this sector at 11.4%, with multiple unit sales driving growth initially before locomotives and shunters are deployed at scale.
Electric aircraft
Conventional take-off and landing aircraft are some of the most technically challenging vehicles to electrify. Enormous energy requirements and strict limits on vehicle weight and safety make some routes unviable for electrification. Nevertheless, smaller high-traffic routes and general aviation (GA) are good candidates for battery electrification, and the incredibly low penetration as of 2024 gives a very strong growth outlook of 45.8% until 2045.
eVTOL
Electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) is an emerging branch of urban mobility that is in the early stages of development. Most deployments as of 2024 were pilot and small-scale demonstrator projects, but IDTechEx expects that cargo applications and air-taxis will begin to see more substantial adoption in the early 2030s, as regulatory and technical hurdles are overcome. This will drive average growth of 35.1% over the forecast. period
Passenger cars
Electric cars are the most visibly deployed EVs on the roads today. With some 16 million vehicles sold in 2024, they are already well established with a ~13% market share, although 2024 was a year of slower-than-historic growth. The next decade of electric cars is set to be shaped by increasingly stringent regulations, particularly in Europe.
By 2035, 100% of cars sold in the EU (the world’s 3rd biggest car market) must be battery electric, although there are increasing calls from certain industrial and political circles that this goal is unrealistic. 2025 will be a key year to watch as an indicator of OEM’s ability to meet these targets. Takahashi expects cars to remain the biggest sector in terms of value and battery demand, but its relatively established electrified share means its CAGR will be a more modest 9.8% by 2045. Over 70 million cars are expected to be sold by 2045.
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