Electromobility: China expands lead
With more than 600,000 electric cars sold (up 72%), almost every second electric car sold worldwide was registered in the China in 2017. Globally, new registrations of 1.2 million vehicles exceeded the million threshold for the first time. By contrast, demand in Europe with 306,000 new registrations (up 39%) and the USA with 200,000 new electric cars (up 27%) is developing at slower pace. Germany is catching up with 58,000 new electric cars – the number of registrations has doubled compared to 2016. This makes Germany the second largest market in Europe after Norway.
China is also well ahead in the production of electric vehicles, with a 41% world market share, followed by Japan with 19% and Germany with 18%. These are the key figures of the current McKinsey Electric Vehicle Index (EVI), in which management consultants regularly measure the development of e-mobility in the 15 most important countries.
“Development is currently progressing very differently from region to region – one cannot speak of a globally uniform e-car market,” explains Nicolai Müller, senior partner of McKinsey. “There are many factors that vary from country to country and sometimes even from city to city: from the level of purchase premiums to other benefits such as free parking, charging infrastructure and the rules for cars with an internal combustion engine.” So far, domestic companies have been dominant in all major countries: In China, the five best-selling e-vehicles all come from Chinese suppliers; in Germany, four of the top five are German brands, as are the American manufacturers in the USA.
For China, the EVI shows great dynamism in terms of both demand and suppliers. In the country with the most produced electric cars and components, demand is also massively boosted: On average, about 40% of the purchase price of an e-car is subsidized. In the market ranking, China ranks second behind Norway – partly because of the unique offer of nearly 100 different e-models, among which Chinese customers can choose. These include many smaller vehicles and brands for urban mobility, which are virtually unknown outside China.
In Europe, every second e-vehicle is a plug-in hybrid; a much higher proportion than in Asia. European customers appreciate the combination of internal combustion engine and electric motor. “We will see a model offensive in the coming years,” predicts Müller. Nearly 250 new E-models have been announced worldwide for 2018 and 2019. By 2020, Germany will catch up with China with around 1.3 million electric vehicles produced annually.
Since 2010, the Electric Vehicle Index developed by McKinsey has been examining at country level where the 15 most important countries for electromobility are located. The countries examined are: Austria, Belgium, China, France, Germany, Great Britain, India, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, South Korea and USA. The index examines the two important dimensions in the development of e-mobility, the market and the industry side.
On the market side, McKinsey is analyzing the market share of electric vehicles in the overall market. On the other hand, incentives such as subsidies, the existing infrastructure and the availability of electric vehicles will be evaluated. The industrial EVI is investigating how successful the country’s automobile industry is in the field of e-mobility. Factors such as the current and future share of global electric vehicle production as well as important components such as electric motors and batteries are used for this purpose.
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