Electromobility in search for the accelerator pedal

Market news | January 18, 2019

By Christoph Hammerschmidt

More than ever, the growth of electric mobility is being driven by China. In 2018, 2.1 million electric vehicles were sold worldwide for 2.1 million units. In China alone, sales of electric vehicles grew by 62% to 1.255 million. These include 202,000 electrically powered commercial vehicles. The growth in e-mobility in the passenger car segment (excluding CV) was even stronger, rising by 82 % to 1.05 million vehicles. The market share of e-vehicles in total registrations rose from 2.7 to 4.5 (Passenger Vehicles, PV = 4.4 %). The share of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) is 75 % (PV), with plug-in hybrids (PHEV) gaining market share. The Chinese automobile market is dominated by Chinese automobile manufacturers to about 95 %.

This is the result of an industry study conducted by the Center of Automotive Management (CAM) in Bergisch Gladbach, Germany, which regularly analyses the market trends and innovations of manufacturers in the field of electric mobility in an international comparison.

In the USA, the sales figures for electric vehicles in 2018 rose by 86% year-on-year to 361,000 units. This was primarily due to new registrations of the Tesla Model 3. The USA is thus by far the second most important market for electric mobility after China. Overall, the market share of electric cars in the USA almost doubled from 1.1 % to 2.1 % in 2018. Around two thirds of the e-vehicles sold are battery electric vehicles (BEVs).

In Europe, Norway remains the most important country for electric cars both in terms of sales figures and market share. In 2018, 18% more e-cars were registered there, bringing the number of new registrations to 73,000. The share of electric vehicles in the total vehicle market thus rose to 49.1 % – almost every second new car in Norway thus has an electric drive.

In Germany, which continues to be the largest automobile market in Europe, demand for electric vehicles remained limited. Although the number of electric cars sold grew by 24% to 68,000 units, their market share is still only 2.0% and thus below the average of the most important automobile countries (see chart).

CAM expects demand for electric vehicles to continue to pick up in the current year. The forecast assumes that global sales of electric vehicles (including commercial vehicles) will grow by around 40 % to 2.7 million units in 2019. The global market share of e-vehicles is expected to increase from 2.4 % to around 3.1 %.

Market share of BEVs, EVs in most relevant markets

In China, e-vehicle sales will then increase by 27 % to 1.6 million and market share will rise to 5.9 %. As a result, the country will continue to be the driver of global e-mobility. In the USA, an increase of around 30 % to 480,000 e-vehicles is expected, which will increase the market share of e-mobility to 2.9 % of total registrations.

In Germany, an increase of 33 % to 90,000 e-vehicles is expected in 2019, mainly due to the launch of new models such as Tesla’s Model 3, Audi and Daimler. The market share should rise to 2.9 %. A much stronger dynamic is expected in Germany and at the global level from 2020, as many major manufacturers, including Volkswagen, will then be planning to launch electric vehicles on the market.

According to Stefan Bratzel, head of the study, the so-called RIP factors (range, infrastructure, price) continue to determine the acceptance of electric cars. Bratzel expects the market to become very dynamic from 2020, when the massive product efforts of many manufacturers and the regulatory environment in main automotive countries will make electric mobility more attractive and carbon-based mobility less attractive. Bratzel then expects the transition to an exponentially increasing demand curve for EU countries. “In 2025, the global optimistic scenario expects new registrations of around 25 % or 23 million electric cars per year, and the conservative scenario expects them to rise by around 12 % or 11 million electric vehicles per year. The density of charging infrastructures in the countries is a critical factor in the market ramp-up,” explains Bratzel.