Foldable displays are down, but not out, says DSCC
The report first examines the current status of the first foldable smartphones from Royole, Samsung and Huawei. It covers what problems they have dealt with and solutions they have implemented. It also reveals cross sections of the foldable panels revealing thicknesses and suppliers for the different layers above and below the panels including hard coats, colorless polyimide, OCA, black matrix, polarizers, touch sensors, adhesive materials, cushion films, frames and more.
The report reveals 360K foldable panels are expected to be shipped in 2019 with foldable devices amounting to less than 250K units. However, by 2023, foldable displays are expected to reach over 68M and generate over $8B in revenues. Examining the foldable roadmaps, product plans and strategy for 11 different brands, DSCC sees clamshells accounting for at least a 60% unit share of the foldable smartphone market from 2020-2023 even though they aren’t in the market yet.
In addition, DSCC sees ultra-thin glass (UTG) from Schott significantly penetrating the foldable market from 2020. The market research firm expects Samsung to launch 2 to 3 products in 2020 with UTG with an aggressive folding radius while enjoying the scratch resistance and hardness of glass as well as the touch experience consumers have grown accustomed to. DSCC also expects to see products that combine clamshell form factors with UTG in 2020.
The next chapter examines all the foldable panel suppliers in terms of their foldable product plans, unyielded capacity, yielded capacity and compares and forecasts yields across the suppliers, including Samsung Display, BOE Technology, LG Display, Royole, Visionox, China Star, AUO and EDO.
Then, DSCC gives detailed cost and price forecasts, ending up the report with foldable unit shipment and revenue forecasts for all foldable applications. In all, foldable panels for smartphones, tablets and notebooks are expected to grow at a 272% CAGR from 0.36M in 2019 to 68.8M in 2023, with corresponding revenues forecast to grow at a 242% CAGR from $62M in 2019 to $8.4B in 2023.
Smartphones will maintain at least a 77% share throughout the forecast on a unit basis on a 248% CAGR, while tablets are expected to grow at a 208% CAGR with NBs at 262%. On a revenue basis, the smartphone share will be 54% with notebooks overtaking tablets in 2022.
DSCC expects Samsung to lead in foldable smartphone penetration and maintain the highest share through the forecast as it looks to establish this category and introduces the most products. An early and proprietary position in UTG may boost its position. But Samsung’s share could fall from 70% in 2020 to 42% in 2023 with foldables accounting for an 8% share of its smartphone shipments in 2023. It is anticipated that Huawei will come second, until Apple enters the market, which could happen in 2022.
Looking at applications by size, the 7.x” market will enjoy the highest share each year except for 2020, notes DSCC. It is a sweet spot for clamshell, in-folding and out-folding. It will be followed by 6.x with 13.x” in third position for both tablets and notebooks.
DSCC – www.displaysupplychain.com
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