Fraunhofer draws up hydrogen roadmap for Germany
Fraunhofer researchers agree that “green” hydrogen and its synthetic products will play a central role in ensuring the greenhouse gas neutrality of all energy-consuming sectors, especially transport and industry. In addition to its direct use, hydrogen will also gain in importance with the increasing system integration of renewable energies due to its high storage and transportability. In their position paper, the Fraunhofer Institutes outline a possible path for the introduction and development of the hydrogen economy in the various fields of application.
Water electrolysis will, at least in Germany, become a decisive industrial policy component, not only for the production of the hydrogen needed in this country, but also as a flexibility option in the power grid and as a core technology for the international export market. For Germany alone, studies assume that the installed capacity of the technology will grow to 50 to 80 GW by 2050. To reach this magnitude, annual growth rates of electrolysers in the double-digit MW range and in the 1 GW range by the end of the 2020s must be achieved immediately.
The position paper outlines various paths of market ramp-up and proposes possible measures to realise this market development: an adjustment of the regulatory framework for taxes, levies and levies on electricity to strengthen sector coupling; the promotion of demonstration projects; the creation of internationally uniform regulations and standards on hydrogen; and the removal of regulatory barriers to fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen filling stations. “From our point of view, the technology basis of the entire value chain exists”, says Prof. Dr. Christopher Hebling, Head of Hydrogen Technologies at the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE, “now it is important to set the course in such a way that the scale-up for the realization of further cost reduction and the gathering of operating experience is successful”.
On a large industrial scale, water electrolyzers will be used in international regions where the electricity production costs of PV and wind power plants are below 3€ ct/kWh and where at least 4000 full load hours per year are achieved. This enables the entry into a global trade with renewable energy sources, as hydrogen and the synthesis products based on it can be produced at internationally competitive costs. Hydrogen can be transported directly in liquid form analogous to LNG, but also in chemically bound form, as ammonia, methanol or LOHC (Liquid Organic Hydrogen Carriers).
“Many regions in the world are preparing for this form of trade in sustainably produced energy carriers and basic chemicals, which will enable further energy partnerships beyond the existing fossil energy partnerships,” says Prof. Dr. Mario Ragwitz, head of the Fraunhofer Institute for Energy Infrastructures and Geothermal Energy IEG. For German industry, too, the expected global demand for hydrogen implies substantial opportunities through the generation of lead markets. On the basis of estimates of the global installed electrolysis capacity of 3000 GW in 2050, the potential value added for German manufacturers in electrolysis and fuel cells has been estimated at around 32 billion euros.
For the realization of an international energy trading system based on hydrogen, the Fraunhofer Institutes consider the following aspects to be necessary:
- Creation of long-term, investment-safe regulatory frameworks for political regulatory security
- Further investment in research to reduce costs and increase the durability of products
- Development of internationally harmonised and certified standards for hydrogen-based energy sources and chemicals
- System analysis to obtain information about the expected business models in the overall chains
- Energy partnerships with countries with high potentials for the expansion of renewable energies to create an attractive long-term investment environment
- International research cooperations
In charge of drawing up this “hydrogen roadmap” were the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI and the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE, with the participation of the Fraunhofer Institute for Microstructures of Materials and Systems IMWS and the Fraunhofer Institute for Ceramic Technologies and Systems IKTS.
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