Future Horizons sounds warnings over chip market rebound
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Malcolm Penn, the founder and chief analyst of Future Horizons, has forecast the chip market will grow 16 percent plus or minus 4 percent in 2024 but sounded a number of warnings.
His growth prediction is in-line with other analysts including Gartner, Semiconductor Intelligence.
However, Penn pointed out that the market’s annual increase is being driven only by a sharp rise in average selling prices. Unit shipments are still falling to flat and without renewed demand a full recovery cannot get going, Penn said.
Another Penn perspective is that the lift in chip market growth is currently the result of comparison with a weak market in the early part of 2023. That comparison will start to unwind in the 2H24.
He argued that automotive and industrial markets have rebuilt stocks and fundamental demand is now driven by global economic outlook which remains uncertain. Penn also said he thought 2024 was too early for a replacement cycle to start driving consumer electronics rebound.
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