Gartner has adjusted its global semiconductor revenue forecast for 2024 and now reckons it will increase by 16.8 percent to US$624 billion.
This is a slight reduction of the growth the market analyst was forecasting for 2024 – of 18.5 percent (see Global chip market to decline 11 percent in 2023, says Gartner). The still-strong 16.8 percent growth is now forecast to followed by a strong 2025 that will be up 15.5 percent taking global chip sales to US$721 billion.
With its latest numbers Gartner is roughly in line with other forecasters although notably WSTS is more bullish for 2023 and more bearish for 2024. WSTS now sees a 9.4 percent chip market decline in 2023, to US$575 billion and a rise of 13.1 percent in 2024 to US$588 billion (see Europe, power support 2023 semiconductor market).
“Reduced demand from smartphones and PC customers coupled with weakness in data center/hyperscaler spending are influencing the decline in revenue this year,” said Alan Priestley, an analyst at Gartner, in a statement.
The bounce back in 2024 will be driven by continued demand for AI processors and double-digit percentage growth in the memory market as demand comes back into balance with supply and average selling prices surge.
Gartner now reckons the worldwide memory market will decline 38.8 percent in 2023 and rebound in 2024 by growing 66.3 percent.
NAND flash revenue is set to fall to US$35.4 billion in 2023 but over the next three to six months industry pricing will hit bottom, and conditions will improve for vendors. Gartner analysts forecast NAND flash revenue growing to US$53 billion, up 49.6 percent year-over-year.
Similarly, DRAM vendors are chasing the market price down to reduce inventory. And end to oversupply will trigger pricing increases in 2024, when DRAM revenue is expected to increase 88 percent to total $87.4 billion.