Global AI server shipments to grow 40% this year says TrendForce

Global AI server shipments to grow 40% this year says TrendForce

Market news |
By Nick Flaherty

Amid all the hype over generative AI and trillion dollar semiconductor companies, market analyst TrendForce predicts a surge in AI server shipments for 2023, with an estimated 1.2 million units.

These use GPUs, FPGAs, and ASICs and mark a year on year growth of 38.4% at a time when the semiconductor industry is shrinking by as much as 20%. This increase resonates with the mounting demand for AI servers and chips, resulting in AI servers poised to constitute nearly 9% of the total server shipments. This figure is projected to increase to 15% by 2026.

TrendForce has revised its growth forecast for AI server shipments between 2022 and 2026 upwards to an ambitious 22% per year.  These chip shipments in 2023 are expected to increase by 46%.

TrendForce analysis indicates that Nvidia’s GPUs currently dominate the AI server market with 60 to 70% market share. Custom ASICs, independently developed by data centre operators, have over 20% of the market.

Nvidia’s A100 and A800 models are sought after by both American and Chinese operators and the demand curve for 2H23 is predicted to gradually tilt towards these newer models with an average selling price twice that of the current A100 and A800.

Second, the profitability of high-end GPUs, specifically the A100 and H100 models, plays a vital role. TrendForce research suggests that Nvidia’s leadership in the GPU market allows for a significant price variation of the H100, which could amount to a stark difference of nearly US$5,000, depending on the buyer’s purchase volume.

The growth of chatbots and AI computations is predicted to persist, expanding its footprint across various professional fields such as cloud and e-commerce services, intelligent manufacturing, financial insurance, smart healthcare, and advanced driver-assistance systems.

There is also a noticeable increase in demand for AI servers, particularly cloud-based ones equipped with 4–8 GPUs and edge AI servers boasting two to four GPUs says TrendForce. It forecasts an annual growth rate of 50% in the shipment of AI servers armed with NVIDIA’s flagship A100 and H100 models.

TrendForce reports that high speed HBM memory is also poised for a significant uptick in demand. The H100 GPU now shipping is equipped with the faster HBM3 technology and this will boost performance. As a result TrendForce forecasts a 58% YoY increase in HBM demand for 2023, with an estimated further boost of 30% expected in 2024.


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