GSMA Warns 6G Will Require up to Triple Today’s Mid-band Spectrum
A new GSMA analysis warns that 6G mobile networks will require two to three times more mid-band spectrum than is typically available today, and that governments need to make policy decisions this decade to avoid severe capacity bottlenecks in the 2030s.
Vision 2040: Spectrum for the Future of Mobile Connectivity models the requirements for dense urban deployments in the 6G era. The study concludes that countries will need a global average of 2–3 GHz of mid-band spectrum by 2035–2040, with higher-demand markets needing 2.5–4 GHz. Most countries currently have around 1 GHz identified for mobile use.
The GSMA says the findings should inform regulatory planning ahead of the ITU’s WRC-27 conference, where future mobile bands will be negotiated. Without early action, the organisation cautions that users could face slower speeds, rising congestion and weaker national competitiveness.
“6G will require three times more mid-band spectrum than is available today,” said John Giusti, Chief Regulatory Officer at the GSMA. “Meeting these needs will be essential for robust connectivity and economic growth.”
Key points from the report
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6G timeline and connections – Commercial deployment is expected from 2030 in China, Japan, South Korea, the US, Europe, India, Vietnam and GCC states. By 2040, more than 5 billion 6G connections are expected, alongside some 2 billion 4G and 3 billion 5G connections still in use.
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Traffic growth – Global mobile traffic is forecast to reach 1 700–3 900 EB/month by 2040, equal to 140–360 GB per connection per month. Heavy-usage “power users” will become commonplace as XR, integrated sensing and autonomous systems grow.
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Urban concentration – Around 83 % of mobile traffic originates in dense urban areas that represent just 5 % of land area. Traffic density in very dense zones is nine times higher than in other urban areas and almost 700 times higher than in rural regions.
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Spectrum needs – Modelling indicates:
– Global average requirement: 2–3 GHz of mid-band spectrum
– Higher-demand countries: 2.5–4 GHz
– Additional 1–3 GHz will be needed on top of today’s allocations
– At least 2 GHz must be operational by 2030 to avoid early congestion -
Candidate bands – The study highlights several potential mid-band ranges under review:
– 3.8–4.2 GHz (200–400 MHz)
– 4.4–4.99 GHz (400–600 MHz)
– Upper 6 GHz, 6.425–7.125 GHz (≈700 MHz)
– 7.125–8.4 GHz (600–1,275 MHz)
The GSMA emphasises that all candidate bands have existing incumbents, meaning long-lead-time planning will be required for coexistence studies, device ecosystem development and international harmonisation.
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