Keysight predictions for 6G wireless in 2024
2024 is shaping up to deliver another round of breakthroughs that promise to fundamentally reshape how the world lives, interacts, and communicates says Keysight Technologies.
Pushing the boundaries of innovation, artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) are poised to begin making serious impacts in 2024 by enabling technologies such as 6G says Keysight. In wireless communications full 5G capabilities will be realized, while progress will be made in defining 6G technologies and standards.
“6G embraces AI for network optimization: 6G will turn to AI for network optimization, which will create testing challenges. It will be vital to develop technologies able to test AI algorithms to ensure training data is free of bias and the models are effective and devoid of anomalous behaviour,” says Dan Thomasson, Head of Central Technology and Vice President of Keysight Labs.
Moving forward, AI technologies will underpin simulation models, ushering in a new era of more accurate, capable, and informative models. In addition, the intelligence will provide enhanced insights into measurement data, reduce errors, and help optimize the design and test workflow.
However some versions of AI are not the key to optimizing 6G networks.
AI has a large role to play in helping optimize 6G. However, it will not be the much-hyped generative AI that relies on large language models and vast data sets, says Roger Nichols, 6G Program Manager at Keysight. Instead, it will be domain-specific data combined with the power of AI models and wireless domain expertise that will help solve specific industry problems. For example, AI algorithms will make improvements in the air interface, helping optimize the 6G system. Other use cases include advancing how to manage mobility during handovers, cell-site planning, and optimizing MIMO. But, before AI can add value to the development of 6G, it needs to be more reliable, explainable, and much less expensive.
“Domain knowledge and AI expertise are vital to successfully integrating AI into 6G networks. Today, we have either wireless experts or AI specialists, but too few heads that share expertise in both domains. Until these skill sets are blended, it will be tough to find the right resources to deploy AI effectively in support of 6G goals. I believe this workforce capability gap will take more than a decade to resolve,” said Nichols.
The combination of complexity and massive amounts of data makes wireless networks ripe for AI optimization. The technology has started to be integrated and in 2024 this will accelerate says Sarah LaSelva, Director of 6G Marketing at Keysight.
A key part of the process will be understanding where AI can help and, crucially, where it’s not the answer and may actually hinder the rollout of 6G. Unlike other sectors, the wireless industry will take a more measured approach to integrating AI. Operators will focus on thoroughly training the machine learning models on diverse data sets, quantifying the impact, and putting a new test methodology in place.
“As AI adoption matures, it will transform the wireless industry over the next decade, unleashing new capabilities such as improved beam management and smart spectrum sharing,” she said.
However 5G still a work in progress says Keysight.
At the end of 2023 there are fewer than 50 commercial standalone 5G networks in the world. Over the next few years, the pace of transition from non-standalone to standalone networks will accelerate as these architectures support a fully programmable 5G network, which in turn enables operators to build services beyond enhanced mobile broadband.
The expansion of standalone networks should pick up, as will the use of network slicing and resolving defects and performance challenges. In addition, the 5G ecosystem will grow in order to support capabilities in a broader range of industries beyond gaming and social media activities. This will lay the groundwork for 6G to be used across a wide set of use cases.
The wireless industry is exploring the acquisition of new spectrum between seven and 24 GHz. However, FR2 (millimeter-wave, 24-52GHz) is already available with many cases allocated, but it’s too expensive to support current use cases. FR2 will require new mobile gaming/VR applications to drive the economy of scale to overcome this hurdle. Interest from Gen Z and Gen Alpha in the new consumer applications played on VR/AR devices rather than traditional smartphones will drive a surge in the demand for higher bandwidth and capacity with a low-stakes use model. Current networks will be unable to support this and operators will turn to FR2 to support the demand at this scale. Once this milestone occurs, the downward pressure on costs will help applications outside the entertainment and advertising realm use FR2.
However mobile subterahertz radio systems will not come to fruition anytime soon and mobile subterahertz (sub-THz) radio systems are at least a decade away. They are not feasible from a mobility standpoint due to immature mobile technology and the associated costs – not to mention power consumption and data-management says Keysight.
6G also will not result in a major overhaul of the core network. It will evolve, but a significant revamp, as happened with network functions in the transition from 4G to 5G, will not occur. The majority of the wireless industry now accepts that this would be a mistake.
Over the next five years the global wireless industry will have to support and manage 2G, 4G, 5G, and 6G networks. This carries significant technical and business challenges. With more than a fifth of the world’s population still relying on 2G, developing regions like Africa and most of Asia will not sunset many legacy networks before the end of the decade. However, India is bucking this trend and has deployed country-wide coverage with 5G standalone networks, making it the largest country in the best position to retire 2G. The only constraint that could slow this shift is the affordability of new devices.
In 2024, regulation will be on the agenda as the industry looks to provide a framework so that the entire ecosystem, including companies, operators, and countries, can work in unison. Due to the complexity involved, particularly at the geopolitical level, this will take several years to resolve.
6G will leverage many different bands and tools to meet the growing demands and expectations for cellular communications. The most challenging technical aspect is how to share spectrum says Sarah LaSelva, Director of 6G Marketing at Keysight.
For example, in 6G the upper mid-band (7-24 GHz) is already used by civilians and governments for meteorology, radio astronomy, and maritime radio navigation. Once wireless access is added, it will necessitate learning how to be good frequency citizens. In 2024, there will be a lot of research in this area to find a pathway forward.
Global spectrum harmonization on the radar for 6G: The World Radio Conference in late 2023 will determine the available frequency bands that 6G will use and put in place a plan to make global spectrum harmonization a reality. This will enable operators to realize economy of scale for components and limit the number of bands to support.
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