LED luminaires market to reach $25bn by 2023
Lux Research used historical trends as well as projected average price reductions to build a model that calculates the adoption rate of LEDs within each end market application – office, industrial and street lighting. The analyst found that recessed modular will emerge the largest LED luminaire market, growing from $1.5 billion in 2013 to $14.5 billion in 2023 by replacing incumbents such as fluorescent.
"As LED packages rapidly fall in cost and improve in efficiency, the cost structure of LED luminaires will shift, and present opportunities in other components such as secondary optics and drivers," suggested Christopher Hwang, Lux Research Associate and the lead author of the report entitled: ‘Casting the Light: Illuminating the Opportunities in 2023’s LED Luminaire Market’. "This trend, in turn, influences the rate of adoption of emerging technologies, such as alternating current (AC) LEDs and high-CRI LEDs in recessed modular, high-bay and roadway luminaires."
Lux Research pinpoints that efficiencies will drive down LED package costs. The analyst also expects LED package costs to fall by more than 80% to less than $4/klm on improved efficiency, increased manufacturing yields and utilization. As a result, the bill of materials (BOM) of a standard 3,500 lumen recessed modular luminaire will fall 35%, from $85 in 2013 to $55 in 2023.
According to Lux high-CRI LED will remain a niche product but AC LED-based luminaires will become cost competitive by 2018 although they will provide a technology advantage only in low-power applications, such as recessed modular luminaires. In contrast, high-CRI luminaires will remain a niche product, with a 9% cost premium by 2023, finding adoption in high-occupancy applications.
Lux predicts that the LED package market will be dwarfed by opportunities in optics and drivers. The secondary optics market will be the single biggest growth opportunity in components, growing to $6.9 billion in 2023, while the drivers market will reach $4.9 billion.
Related links and articles:
www.luxresearchinc.com
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