LTE expected to dominate wireless infrastructure spending by 2013
LTE infrastructure spending in 2015 will rise to $36.1 billion, compared to just $9.0 billion for 3.5G, as presented in the figure attached. This rapid growth is expected to allow LTE to overtake 3.5G, which will end its five-year run this year as the dominant category in wireless infrastructure gear spending. In 2013, 3.5G infrastructure technology will generate $19.8 billion in revenue.
“While 3.5G remains the dominant air interface technology in the mobile infrastructure market, the 4G LTE space has been gaining momentum,” said Jagdish Rebello, Ph.D., director and principal analyst for communications and consumer electronics research at IHS. “This trend started in the second half of 2009 when some wireless operators in Europe, North America, Japan and South Korea started to deploy LTE technology. The number of mobile network operators that are trialing, deploying or commercially operating 4G LTE networks now has grown to about 200 worldwide, up from 160 in 2010. And such widespread support will drive carrier spending on LTE to surpass 3.5G by next year.”
For infrastructure manufacturers and semiconductor suppliers, LTE represents a strong revenue growth potential and an opportunity to develop long-term relationships with carriers. To this end, manufacturers are developing hardware solutions labeled as “Any G to LTE” that support easy software upgrades to LTE, while maintaining backward compatibility with the legacy 2.5G and 2.75G wireless technologies still in use in some parts of the world.
“The vendors that will win in the transition to 4G will be those that can demonstrate cost-effective, upgradable solutions capable of delivering performance as defined by the LTE specifications,” Rebello said.
Like the vendors now competing in the 4G equipment area, silicon suppliers also must be ready to meet the challenges and demands that LTE solutions place on semiconductors and hardware architectures, with suppliers able to deliver price-competitive solutions.
In particular, the 4G networks of the future must evolve to more heterogeneous architectures such as metro cells, which will be used to augment coverage or fill holes in areas of high data traffic. These metro cells—also known as small cells—will be used alongside Wi-Fi hotspots to provide coverage in public spaces, IHS believes.
At present, semiconductor suppliers are trying to address the challenge of metro cells with solutions that reflect their heritage. For instance, Texas Instruments and Freescale Semiconductor are targeting the metro cell market with digital signal processing (DSP) solutions. Meanwhile, companies like PicoChip and Broadcom are trying to address the same issue with scaled-up versions of their system-on-chip solutions for femto base stations.
To be sure, such solutions will require tremendous flexibility in networking equipment, and the solutions likely will have to be tailored to the needs of the individual operators. And even for a given operator, such needs will vary by location.
Learn more with the IHS iSuppli report entitled: “2011 Mobile Data Explosion Driving Transition to Heterogeneous Networking Architectures and Small Cells.”
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