MicroLED displays delayed but coming in two to three years

News | November 24, 2023

By Peter Clarke

Displays & Interfaces microLED Materials & processes

The commercialization of microLED display technology, the source of much optimisim in 2017, has been delayed but should arrive in the next two or three years, says Yole Group.

The market research firm reckons broader adoption should then take place in the next five to ten years as economies of scale open up applications across a broader set of equipment types.

In 2023 Yole reckons the microLED panel market will be US$35 million and climb to US$150 million in 2024. A dip in 2025 will be followed by another wave of growth to take the annual market to about US$600 million in 2026.

TV panels are the primary market at present with a surge of sales into smartwatches in 2026 and in some AR/MR/XR glasses. Yole does not expect significant sales into smartphones, tablets and laptop computers until 2029 at the earliest.

The reason for the delay is that the incumbent technology – in this case OLED – has improved under the competitive challenge and this has resulted in cost models for microLED that have struggled compared with OLED with only a small performance advantage.

Investment

However, investment has been picking up pace. “While the industry has seen substantial investment with over US$11.5 billion spent by 2023, including US$8.8 billion for R&D and startup funding, and US$2.7 billion for pilot lines and manufacturing preparations, the path to success has been marked by ups and downs, often due to challenges in achieving high-yield, low-cost, high-volume production,” said Eric Virey, an analyst at Yole, in a statement.

To gain a foothold in various equipment types microLED displays must deliver performance and function advantages; higher brightness, color depth, stability, Yole said.

MicroLED’s eventual success may hinge on disruptive architectural changes such as CMOS microdrivers, which have the potential to enable such features as memory-in-pixel or integrated sensors, and significantly reduced power consumption.

Supply chain

Supply chain management is also key to market adoption. In Taiwan there is an ecosystem that covers all aspects of microLED development and manufacturing and this has been marked by the formation of a domestic microLED alliance in April 2023.

China is trying to emulate this with the fostering of domestic toolmakers for mass-transfer, testing and repair. Korea lacks such a well-established ecosystem but the vertical integration and influence of companies such as LG and Samsung are helping to drive microLED and process development.