Mobility-as-a-service to spur autonomous vehicle growth, says forecast
This represents a significant increase from the 51,000 units that the firm forecasts for the first year of significant volume in 2021. A key factor influencing the expected growth is the rapid convergence of autonomous driving and mobility services such as ride-hailing.
With its industry-friendly regulatory approach, the U.S. is expected to lead the initial deployment and early adoption of production autonomous vehicles as early as 2019, says the company, while Europe and China are expected to begin contributing significant volume from 2021 onward. Mobility-as-a-service is expected to bring this technology to consumers before individual ownership of autonomous vehicles enters the picture.
“The first autonomous vehicle volumes – beyond retrofit test vehicles – will arrive in 2019 through driverless mobility services,” says Egil Juliussen, Ph.D. and director of automotive technology research at IHS Markit. “Volumes will surpass 51,000 units in 2021 when personally owned autonomous cars reach individual buyers for the first time, and IHS Markit forecasts estimate nearly 1 million units will be sold in 2025 across shared fleets and individually owned cars.”
Contributing to earlier deployment timelines are significant ongoing investment in transportation technology by OEMs, suppliers, mobility service providers, and technology companies. In addition, says the firm, dedicated mobility service brands within many automakers contribute to higher volumes of autonomous vehicles in the forecast.
The firm also sees partnerships and ecosystems forming around technology and services helping the industry address the complex challenges around the evolution of autonomous mobility. Its forecast also includes a breakdown of Levels 4 and 5 of the industry-standard Society of Automotive Engineers Levels of Automation.
“Diversity of choice in personal mobility and autonomous driving technologies are both evolving more quickly than ever, but their convergence will have the greatest impact,” says Jeremy Carlson, principal automotive analyst at IHS Markit. “Autonomous mobility services can deliver newfound personal freedom to the young, old, disabled and others without reliable transportation for everyday needs.
“But the benefits don’t have to stop there,” he says. “Fleet operators in big cities who better understand the lower operational costs of battery electric vehicles are more likely to employ them to drive higher amounts of vehicle and passenger miles traveled.”
Factors that will limit adoption of autonomous vehicles in other global markets, says the firm, include the presence and strength of the local automotive industry, regulations governing autonomous driving and/or mobility services including ride-hailing, and the complexity of local driving conditions.
While many countries – such as Japan, South Korea, Australia and Canada – will have a mix of favorable conditions that introduce autonomous vehicles locally as early as 2022, most global markets are expected to experience more roadblocks, resulting in late initial deployment and low adoption of autonomous driving overall.
In 2040, the firm forecasts that autonomous vehicles sales in other global markets will reach nearly 6.3 million per year combined, compared to more than 27.4 million between the U.S., China, and Europe. For more, see IHS Markit’s “Autonomous Vehicle Sales Forecast and Report.”
Related articles:
GM to launch robo-taxi service in 2019
Qualcomm secures self-driving car permit in CA
Waymo robo-taxi service to include rider insurance
Samsung jumps into autonomous driving market
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