OLED to compete with LED lighting by 2016
Cintelliq’s report entitled ‘OLED Lighting: products, pricing, capacity, costs and forecasts 2013 – 2022’ points out that OLED lighting prices are falling fast and will reach €1,000/m2 by 2015/2016 which will cause demand to accelerate starting with luminaires for the office, retail and hospitality sectors.
Cintelliq says the commercialisation of OLED lighting continues to accelerate, with a growing list of companies announcing their intention to enter the market. Although traditional lighting companies are active, seeking to safeguard their position with regards to OLED lighting, there are many new entrants that want to challenge these incumbents and shift the dynamics of the industry. Companies are beginning to scale-up the manufacturing of OLED lighting panels, at the same time product performance is rapidly improving both will have an impact on the pricing, capacity, costs and volumes over the next 10 years.
Cintelliq predicts that OLED lighting will become a strong competitor to LED lighting by 2016 one year earlier than previously thought. OLED lighting may have had a gentle start but it is now firmly gaining market traction as an increasing number of OLED panels and luminaires reach the market – with the efficacy and lifetimes of current OLED panels at a performance level to last more than ten years under normal operating conditions they are rapidly becoming an alternative to LED lighting.
The report admits that although the potential of the OLED market in the short-term is debatable Cintelliq’s analysis shows is that during the 2020 – 2023 period OLED lighting is set to become a major alternative to LED lighting in terms of performance, price and lifetimes.
By 2020 OLED panels will be priced at €200 per m2 and operate at a brightness of 5,000cd per m2 and we could see OLED panels priced at less than €14/klm. By 2023 worldwide OLED panel production may exceed 500 million 100 mm x 100 mm panel equivalents.
Cintelliq concludes that the 66% price drop by LG Chem and brighter panels offered by Philips are clear signs that OLED lighting is here for the long-term as the two leading manufacturers seek to secure key market share in this rapidly growing market. Konica Minolta plans to launch the world’s first roll-to-roll OLED panel manufacturing line in late 2014 which will increases capacity and increase choice for luminaire manufacturers and end-users. Increased competition among OLED panel manufacturers will see greater product innovation and further price falls.
Figure 1: OLED lighting panel production capacity ramp-up
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