OLEDs hardly have a chance against LED Lighting
OLED is likely to struggle to define and communicate its unique selling points and may remain an over-priced and under-performing option compared to LED lighting, conclude IDTechEx experts Norman Bardsley and Khasa Ghaffarzadeh. That is, unless Apple-like design innovation occurs. In other words: In standard applications, OLEDs won’t be competitive against LEDs, but in areas where chic design features are the decisive factor, they have a good chance to prevail. This could be the case in the hospitality, retail (the fancy part) and architectural sectors.
Today, OLEDs lag in terms of efficiency. Conventional LEDs typically offer 90-100 lm/W at package level while OLED modules deliver just 20-50lm/W. Another weak point for OLEDs is their life expectancy: The operating life of LEDs far exceed that of OLEDs. Indeed, LED lamps regularly offer in excess of 50,000 operating hours. In contrast, OLED lighting offers 5,000 to 15,000 hours of operational life even when encapsulated.
Cost is another important factor. Again, LEDs stay ahead with prices in the area of $5/klm at package level and $20 to $100 klm for complete luminaires. In comparison to this price level, OLEDs are so much more expensive that the authors of the IDTechEx study calls it "extortionate". Indeed, at a price of $300 to $500/klm – at panel level, excluding the cost of fixture design, OLEDs are far from being a cost-effective alternative. While OLED vendors typically position their products in the specialty market segment – which includes a high pricing level anyway – the reasons for the high OLED prices can be found mainly at the technology level. The main cost drivers are the encapsulation layer (barrier, adhesive and desiccant) and integrated substrates (transparent conductive layer, substrate and out-coupling layer).
Figure 1. A radar chart comparing attributes of OLED and LED lighting.
OLED lighting offers high potential for large-area emission as well as good form factors, although today most OLED lighting applications are made on rigid glass. Nevertheless, OLED lighting is still embryonic, the study finds.
The authors point out that LED lighting development is far more mature – and more money has been spent on it than OLED lighting. However, recently many companies have become active in OLED lighting and investment is increasing. For this reason, the experts expect a fast cost reduction rate for the active materials.
The growth of the OLED display industry will aid the OLED lighting sector with cheaper, higher performance devices over time – with some overlap in supply chains. The challenges faced in OLED lighting applications will not be solved by the panel manufacturers alone.
LED lighting is intrinsically a point source light, whereas OLED lighting is a surface emission device. While OLED lighting is likely to have a competitive edge here, its advantage is not as compelling as first evident. This is because the use of multiple LEDs in conjunction with waveguides is enabling the effective realisation of surface emission. At the same time, most OLED production today takes place on Gen-2 substrates.
Form factor (mechanical flexibility) is often claimed as a major selling point too. Today OLED technology falls short due to the encapsulation layers being based on glass – but progress on flexible barriers for OLED displays is likely to help this in the future. OLEDs also have the edge on colour warmth, low weight and thinness.
The onus over the coming years is therefore likely to be on luminaire/fixture designers who develop and sell niche products, capitalising on improved design parameters made available by OLEDs.
A summary of the relative contribution of each lighting market segment to the total OLED market between 2013 and 2023 is shown below.
Based on the “most likely” scenario, IDTechEx forecast the market will grow to $1.3 billion in 2023 and initially grow at a rapid rate of 40-50% annually, although the initial market base in very small. In the study, the experts contextualize their assessment by expressing market forecast in units of equivalent 60W incandescent bulbs. Production capacities are compared too to further set out forecasts in prospective.
For more details visit www.IDTechEx.com/oled.
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