PV book-to-bill is forecast to dip sharply below parity before rebound in Q411
During 2H’11, the PV Book-to-Bill is forecast to dip sharply below parity before rebounding in Q4’11. New order intake will be driven by polysilicon fab expansions and the next phase of c-Si ingot-to-module equipment spending.
The PV Book-to-Bill ratio compares new-order-intake to revenues-recognized within a given period. It is the ratio of demand to supply in the equipment supply chain. A PV Book-to-Bill ratio of 1.01 for Q1’11 means that US$101 of new orders was received by PV equipment suppliers for every US$100 of recognized product revenues.
Finlay Colville, Senior Analyst at Solarbuzz, commented: “PV equipment suppliers remain confronted by a highly fragmented manufacturing landscape, comprised of hundreds of potential customers each at varying stages of technology acceptance and product competitiveness. Understanding the role of book-to-bill ratios at the process tool level, and how each of these is likely to trend moving forward, provides an external benchmarking resource for tool makers to complement their internal marketing strategies.”
2009 and 2010 were characterized by huge PV equipment demand in an environment where even tier 2 and 3 PV manufacturers had little difficulty accessing finance for their capacity expansions. However, 2011 and 2012 represent a harsh reality check on tool makers’ order books as manufacturing expansions retrench primarily to tier 1 companies. Sharp declines in book-to-bill ratios are currently being posted by equipment suppliers that have been over-dependent on c-Si expansions in Europe, tier 2 c-Si spending from China, and speculative thin-film investments.
“Tool suppliers that are waiting for repeat business from these customer types and those without sufficient exposure to leading Asian producers will be most at risk during 2012,” added Colville.
Visit Solarbuzz at www.solarbuzz.com
If you enjoyed this article, you will like the following ones: don't miss them by subscribing to :
