Report predicts RAN revenue decline before the 6G wave

Report predicts RAN revenue decline before the 6G wave

Market news |
By Jean-Pierre Joosting

In their latest report, Mobile Experts lays out the details of today’s Radio Access Network (RAN) market, with Ericsson leading the race in first place and Nokia takes the second place, pulling far ahead of Huawei.

Mobile Expert’s new forecast reveals the ways in which China and the rest of the world have become entirely separate markets. While China will work to meet their government’s expectations of 5G development over the next two years, the United States and other countries will experience a decline in 5G investment.

“We’ve seen this pattern many times, in 2000, 2008, 2016 and now 2023,” comments Chief Analyst, Joe Madden. “The second half of every ‘G’ involves significant reductions in base station pricing, as well as shifts in volume. Every ‘G’ migrates from a growth opportunity to a cash-cow opportunity. This time, we have some interesting shifts toward software and Private 5G at the same time, which offset the natural decline of the market.”

In another report, Mobile Experts that goes behind the scenes of mobile operators and their commitments to climate goals. It explores an important question that is breaching the horizon — what does “net zero” really mean for 5G and 6G hardware and software?

The global and political climate of today steers steadily in the direction of overhauling the way mobile operators approach energy consumption, innovation, and maximizing the potential for 5G and 6G to save power.

According to Mobile Experts, cooling and running RAN equipment accounts for over 70% of energy usage for a typical mobile operator. Chief Analyst Joe Madden boldly suggests that, in order to keep up with stringent demands and ever-evolving climate policy, operators would be wise to shut down their old 2G and 3G networks.

“Instead of fixating on how much carbon the telecom network is emitting, operators should capitalize on how much carbon the network is saving,” Madden comments. “We identify a few applications where mobile automation saves 20 times as much power as it consumes.”


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