Scenario 2050: Material shortages for Li-ion batteries ahead
Cobalt-free energy storage materials and post-lithium technologies based on non-critical elements such as sodium or magnesium, but also zinc, calcium and aluminum, open up ways to reduce resource pressure and avoid it in the long term, the researchers explain in their analysis, which they published in Nature Reviews Materials.
Besides lithium, cobalt is an essential component of the positive electrode in today’s lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) and is decisive for energy and power density as well as durability. However, the low availability and high toxicity of cobalt is problematic. “In general, the rapidly growing market penetration of LIBs for mobile and stationary applications, especially in lithium and cobalt, will lead to an increasing demand for raw materials,” says Professor Stefano Passerini, who conducted the study together with Dr. Daniel Buchholz at the Helmholtz Institute (Ulm, Germany).
By means of a scenario-based analysis covering the time frame to 2050, the researchers showed for various applications of batteries that the price increase and the supply shortages of cobalt are likely to occur because the demand from batteries could be twice as high as the cobalt reserves identified today. The situation with lithium is quite different: The reserves of this material identified today are sufficient, but production must be scaled up to ten times as high as it is needed to meet future demand, depending on the scenario.
Both element’s reserves are also highly concentrated geographically and are located in countries that are considered to be politically less stable. This could lead to shortages of LIBs and a related price increase already in the near future, the scientists predict. “In order to reduce these risks and the pressure on cobalt and lithium reserves, it is essential to extend research activities to alternative battery technologies,” says Buchholz. Post-lithium systems are particularly attractive for electromobility and stationary applications. It is therefore extremely important and urgent to exploit their potential and to develop these innovative, high-energy batteries into marketable products,” stresses Passerini.
A different global scenario for battery applications in the field of electromobility, also developed at HIU, confirms these results. “The fact that the future availability of cobalt for the mass production of batteries can be classified as very critical is also demonstrated by the price increase of more than 120 percent within one year (2016-2017),” emphasizes HIU system analyst Marcel Weil. His proposal for action: Establishing a circular battery economy with a high recycling rate would reduce the pressure on critical materials.
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Further Information: https://www.energy.kit.edu/index.php
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