The IEEE Computer Society (IEEE CS) has revealed the official scorecard for its 2022 Technology Predictions. The scorecard for the 2022 predictions indicates the level of performance and impacts achieved for currently trending technologies against the projections made in January 2022.
The IEEE CS experts evaluated their overall prediction of technology advancement with a score of B/C, and its impact on humanity a B-. The highest success was attributed to the predictions for the Convergence of HPC, AI, and Data Analytics (tech advancement: B+; impact: B-); Datacentric AI (B+; B+); Remote Medicine (B+; A-); and Digital Twins in Manufacturing (B; B):
- Convergence of HPC, AI, and Data Analytics was driven by all three technologies and equally by governments, industry and academia.
- Datacentric AI was successful due to the critical importance of data for training AI models.
- Remote medicine has caught on during COVID and extended its importance in post-COVID days.
- Digital twins made the most progress in manufacturing where constrained environments took full advantage of digital twin benefits.
“On average,” says Dejan Milojicic, former IEEE CS president (2014) and current Distinguished Technologist at Hewlett Packard Labs, “we ranked the impact of predicted technologies on humanity as B- with the overall confidence in all scorecard elements (success, impact, maturity) also a B-. This is very similar to our previous years, perhaps slightly on the lower side. This is not surprising given the very volatile past year due to COVID.”
The group’s continued success in predicting was primarily brought down by NFTs (technology advancement D+; impact D/E), followed by unsuccessful predictions for Disinformation Detection/Correction (C), Low-Code/No-Code (C+), and Commoditization of Space Technologies (C+).
In terms of maturity, two additional classes were introduced for the first time – Unsuccessful and Broad Adoption. The NFTs and Commoditization of Space Technologies were classified as unsuccessful, and Convergence of HPC, AI, and Data Analytics were classified as Broad Adoption.
Following the established process from previous years, the authors who originally made the predictions in January 2022 evaluated their predictions individually. The averages and standard deviations were used as a basis for the discussion that eventually resulted in the final rating.
The IEEE CS Technology Predictions for 2023 will be revealed in January 2023.