Tariff prospects dampen notebook market recovery
The uncertainty generated by recent multiple US tariff announcements is starting to have an effect on a notebook computer market recovery, prompting market analyst TrendForce to reduce its forecast for market growth in 2025.
Trendforce had seen strong shipments over the winter months but it has now revised its full-year 2025 notebook brand shipment annual growth forecast downward from 3.6 percent to just 1.4 percent. This is driven by the likelihood of US tariffs being imposed and the renewed general economic weakness that broader tariffs are likely to drive.
Notebook computers imported into the US from Southeast Asia – excluding China – are currently on a zero percent tariff but it was the prospect of tariffs that had started to ramp inventory in 4Q24, reckons the market analyst. Annual growth in 4Q24 was 5.1 percent and this has risen to 7.2 percent in 1Q25.
The US represents about 30 percent of the global market for notebook computers, TrendForce estimates.
Chinese produced notebook computers are likely to be eliminated from the US market due to extreme tariffs however, a significant proportion of notebook production is in Vietnam, Thailand and other regional hubs outside China.
If tariffs on notebook computers from these regions can be set at a low figure between 10 and 20 percent it could stabilize market sentiments. However, if talks breakdown and tariffs escalate the annual notebook market could shrink, said TrendForce.
Related links and articles:
www.trendforce.com
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