The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization has lowered its forecasts for the global chip market in 2022 and 2023.
As recently as August WSTS was saying that the chip market would grow 13.9 percent in 2022 and by 4.6 percent in 2023 (see Europe and memory markets cause WSTS rethink). It has now wiped another 9 percentage points off both those forecasts and is predicting 4.4 percent growth for the market in 2022 and a 4.1 percent contraction in 2023.
This modest growth followed by a modest fall is in line with market analysts Gartner and IC Insights (see Global chip market to fall 5% in 2023, says IC Insights and Gartner remains bullish on 2023 chip market prospects) but at odds with the more bearish forecast of Malcolm Penn at Future Horizons (see Chip market growth in 2023 will be ‘deeply negative’ says analyst).
WSTS says the annual global semiconductor market will be worth $580 billion, up 4.4 percent. The reasons given are much the same as by market analysts: that rising inflation has weakened consumer markets and hurt memory component sales.
WSTS holds that some categories of components have remained strong and will see double-digit percentage year-over-year growth in 2022. These are led by analog, up 20.8 percent, sensors up 16.3 percent and logic up 14.5 percent. However, the much larger category of memory is expected to be down in 2022 by 12.6 percent.
In 2022, all geographical regions are expected to show growth except Asia Pacific. The largest region, Asia Pacific, is expected to decline 2.0 percent. The Americas region is expected to show growth of 17.0 percent, Europe 12.6 percent, and Japan 10.0 percent. However, because Asia-Pacific – including China – is roughly 60 percent of the global market it has a dominating effect and pulls the global growth down to 4.4 percent.
In 2023, the global semiconductor market will decline by 4.1 percent to US$557 billion, WSTS reckons. Memory weakness means its market will drop to US$112 billion, a fall of 17 percent compared to the previous year. Other categories including optoelectronics, sensors, discrete and analog components are expected to eke out single-digit percentage growth.
The geographic markets in the Americas, Europe and Japan are expected to be flat in 2023 while the Asia-Pacific market is estimated to contract by 7.5 percent year-over-year.