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WSTS predicts 2024 chip market will grow 16%

WSTS predicts 2024 chip market will grow 16%

Market news |
By Peter Clarke

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The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization has raised its forecast for the global chip market in 2024 putting it at odds with at least one other analyst.

In its Spring forecast WSTS has predicted the global chip market will be worth US$611.23 billion an increase of 16.0 percent from 2023. Last November WSTS was predicting the market would grow by 11.8 percent. After 16-percent growth in 2024 WSTS is predicting 12.5 percent growth in 2025 to take the market to an annual value of US$687.38 billion.

Meanwhile Malcolm Penn of analysis firm Future Horizons has just reduced his growth forecast. He was predicting 16 percent growth for 2024 but dropped his forecast to 4.9 percent (see Analyst drops chip market forecast after 1Q24 “train wreck”). Penn sounded warnings that such growth as has been seen so far is based on increases in average selling prices without a corresponding increase in units shipped.

WSTS Spring 2024 forecast summary including 2025. Note: numbers in the table are rounded to whole millions of dollars, which may cause totals by region and by product groups to differ slightly. Source: WSTS.

Nonetheless, WSTS has predicted growth driven by stronger than previously expected sales in the Americas and Asia-Pacific regions and weaker sales in Europe and Japan. This is in-line with the narrative that consumer electronics sales and enterprise computing are bouncing back while industrial, automotive and communications infrastructure are being more cautious after supply chain corrections.

The forecast consumer and enterprise surge likely rests on the basis of extended replacement cycles for smartphones and personal computers becoming irresistible and exceptionally strong demand for AI in both the datacenter and at the edge.

For 2024, WSTS anticipates that two IC categories will drive the growth for the year with double-digit percentage increases, logic with 10.7 percent and memory with 76.8 percent. Conversely, other categories such as discrete, optoelectronics, sensors, and analog Semiconductors are expected to experience single-digit declines.

The Americas and Asia Pacific regions are projected to see significant growth, with increases of 25.1 percent and 17.5 percent, respectively. In contrast, Europe is expected to show marginal growth of 0.5 percent, while Japan is forecasted to see a slight decline of 1.1 percent.

More in 2025

The following year will also be driven by primarily by the memory and logic sectors, which are set to be worth more US$200 billion in 2025 each, representing an upward trend of over 25 percent for memory and over 10 percent for Llogic from the previous year. All other segments are anticipated to record single-digit growth rates.

In 2025, all regions are poised for continued expansion. The Americas and Asia Pacific are expected to maintain their double-digit growth on a year-over-year basis.

Related links and articles:

www.wsts.org

News articles:

Analyst drops chip market forecast after 1Q24 “train wreck”  

WSTS lowers global chip market forecast for 2023

Future Horizons sounds warnings over chip market rebound

TSMC trims semiconductor, foundry forecast for 2024    

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