Emerging technology in LED lighting to shape the outlook for 2014 predicts Yole

January 24, 2014 //By Paul Buckley
Emerging technology in LED lighting to shape the outlook for 2014 predicts Yole
In 2014, after years of anticipation, promises and excitement, General Lighting will no longer be 'at the corner' for the LED industry predicts Pars Mukish, Senior Analyst, LED, Lighting Technologies and Compound Semiconductors activities at Yole Développement.

Mukish reckons that to successfully convert this opportunity into bottom line cash, the industry will have to undergo some major transformations, and many challenges await. First of all, the highly fragmented LED industry - with more than a hundred chip makers and thousands of packaging companies - needs some serious consolidations.

Secondly, the paradigm changes of SSL implied that it is no longer simply about making bulbs and sticking them into luminaires.   To reap the full benefits of LEDs, products will have to be designed out of the box, almost from the chip to the final installation in our living room or city hall.

Developments toward technical innovation and manufacturing excellence both appear as mandatory conditions to continue to decrease the '$/lm' of LED devices. However manufacturers should not focus only on reducing packaged LED costs, they should also decrease other component costs – such as IC drivers/power supplies, and optics - as light source cost reduction will reach its limit. Large incumbents like OSRAM and Philips have spent billions of dollars in acquisitions to evolve from light source manufacturers into full solution providers including light engines, luminaire controls.

"In 2013, LED technology has really started to spread beyond general lighting," explained Mukish. "With the LED penetration rate greater than 5% in some applications (such as residential lighting, commercial lighting and road and street lighting). However, to enable massive adoption of the technology, LED products still require a cost decrease in order to be able to compete with incumbent technologies (halogen…)".

Additionally, the switch from a display driven market to a Solid-State Lighting (SSL) driven market poses many challenges for the many LED manufacturers that are not vertically integrated all the way through to lamps/luminaires. Indeed, to address the LCD display market, LED manufacturers just needed to discuss with Samsung and LG (or, to be more specific, their backlighting unit suppliers, of which there are only a handful) and develop

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