IDC drops PC market forecast ahead of 2024 rebound

Market news | January 2, 2024

By Peter Clarke

semiconductor PC market research Analog Artificial Intelligence

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IDC has lowered its forecast for the worldwide PC market in 2023 due to a ‘tenuous macroeconomic environment.”

The market researcher said it now expects the worldwide PC shipment volume to decline to 251.8 million units, a drop of 13.8 percent compared with 2022, which itself was a drop of 16.6 percent from 2021.

IDC said that two consecutive years of double-digit percentage drops had never happened in the PC market but that it would now likely contribute to a recovery in 2024 and beyond.

Many market drivers

The market is now ready to be driven by a recovery consumer spending, pressure of a refresh cycle in enterprise PCs and the arrival of AI-capable PCs, the firm said. This combination is leading IDC to forecast a 3.4 percent rise in shipments in 2024 compared with 2023.

The arrival of AI-PCs in 2024, initially aimed at the enterprise PC market, is expected to serve as a catalyst for upgrades, Over time, further advancement in use cases and cost reductions could spread to the broader market.

Beyond 2024, growth is expected to surpass pre-pandemic shipment levels with 285 million units shipping in 2027.

Jay Chou, a research manager at IDC, said: “Notebooks are already at higher levels than 2019, signalling a sizable expansion of the notebook market even after covid-induced purchases have subsided. We maintain that factors like hybrid work, commercial refresh, and growth in premium PCs can lead to a compound annual growth rate of 3.1 percent from 2023 through 2027.”