Japan will break into advanced chip manufacturing by 2027, partly due to the efforts of government-backed foundry Rapidus Inc. to introduce 2nm manufacturing, according to TrendForce.
At the same time Taiwan will see reduced market share in foundry advanced chip manufacturing, defined as manufacturing at 16/14nm and below, the market researcher reckons. In mature chip manufacturing at 28nm and above China will expand foundry market share to rival that of Taiwan.
As of 2023 Taiwan holds approximately 46 percent of global semiconductor foundry capacity, followed by China (26 percent), South Korea (12 percent), the US (6 percent), and Japan (2 percent).
US is offering incentives for advanced chip manufacturing and domestic foundry capacity is expected to increase to 17 percent but TSMC and Samsung will account for over half of this capacity.
Japan is also planning a return to semiconductor manufacturing, actively supporting local foundry Rapidus with the aim of introducting 2nm process. Japan is also offering subsidies to foreign companies including join ventures with TSMC called JASM and Powerchip (PSMC).
However, Europe does not register as a significant source of advanced chip manufacturing by 2027 on TrendForces’s chart despite the introduction of 4nm manufacturing by Intel in Leixlip, Ireland, and hopes of Intel bringing advanced manufacturing to Magdeburg, Germany.
China’s mature process foundry capacity is set to grow to 39 percent as TSMC in particular focuses on higher margin advanced manufacturing. China is also being constrained so that it can only expand in mature process technologies in response to export controls on advanced equipment by the US, Japan, and the Netherlands.